Challenges and Strategic Recommendations for Enhancing Quantification and Projection of Forest Carbon Dynamics

https://doi.org/10.1007/s44392-025-00048-7

Journal of Forestry 2025

Authors
Holly L. Munro, National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc. (NCASI)
Christopher W. Woodall, USDA Forest Service, Washington Office
William R. L. Anderegg, School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah; Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy, University of Utah
Jeff W. Atkins, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station
Colin M. Beier, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Department of Sustainable Resources Management
Bronson P. Bullock, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia
Stephen M. Kinane, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia
Can Vatandaslar, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia; Artvin Coruh University, Turkey
Sheng-I. Yang, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia
Kendall DeLyser, American Forests
David D. Diaz, Ecotrust; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington; Vibrant Planet, PBC
Bianca N. I. Eskelson, Department of Forest Resources Management, The University of British Columbia
Gregory Paradis, Department of Forest Resources Management, The University of British Columbia
Margaret E. K. Evans, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona
John D. Foppert, Institute of Forestry, Paul Smith’s College
Bryan C. Foster, Foster Forestry & Environmental Consulting LLC
Thomas R. Fox, Rayonier Inc.
Jereme M. Frank, Maine Department of Agriculture, Conservation, and Forestry, Maine Forest Service
Robert E. Froese, School of Forest Science and Management, University of Alberta
George C. Gaines III, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Peter Gould, Mason, Bruce & Girard, Inc.
Temesgen Hailemariam, College of Forestry, Oregon State University
Edie Sonne Hall, Three Trees Consulting
Katherine A. Heckman, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station
Eileen H. Helmer, USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry
J. Aaron Hogan, USDA Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry
Coeli M. Hoover, USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station
David W. MacFarlane, Department of Forestry, Michigan State University
Lara T. Murray, USDA Forest Service, Washington Office
Krishna P. Poudel, Mississippi State University, Department of Forestry, Forest and Wildlife Research Center
Stephen P. Prisley, Prisley Forest Analytics, LLC
James L. Rakestraw, International Paper
Hector Restrepo, National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc. (NCASI)
Ajay Sharma, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University
John D. Shaw, USDA Forest Service (Logan, UT)
Erin Smith-Mateja, USDA Forest Service, National Forest System
Curtis L. VanderSchaaf, Mississippi State University
Aaron R. Weiskittel, Center for Research On Sustainable Forests, University of Maine

Abstract
The critical role of forest carbon modeling in climate change mitigation and adaptation has brought it to the forefront of natural climate solutions (NCS) discussions. To facilitate scientific inquiry related to forest carbon and its climate change mitigation potential, we synthesize current challenges and recommend strategic advancements for quantifying and projecting forest carbon dynamics. A national collaborative effort, engaging stakeholders from academia, industry, and policy sectors, has identified key six areas for scientific development, including tree growth, mortality, and regeneration models, genetics and silviculture, forest floor and belowground carbon, natural disturbances, carbon reporting, and carbon tools and applications. We provide actionable recommendations, such as creating nationally consistent frameworks for forest dynamics models, improving model-data integration for disturbance effects, establishing best practices for uncertainty in carbon reporting, and expanding online tools for spatially explicit carbon estimates. Some of these recommendations are achievable in the short term (3–5 years) and others require longer-term investments (10 + years). Emphasizing a multi-phase strategy that builds on established modeling frameworks such as the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), we articulate how these priorities can support policy and management decisions. Integrating these efforts can advance collective knowledge and enhance our forecasting capabilities of forest carbon in response to climate, disturbances, industrial needs, and management practices, thereby aiding natural climate objectives and the broader ecosystem services provided by forests.

Keywords: Belowground carbon, Forest vegetation simulator, Growth and yield models, Natural climate solutions, Natural disturbances