Forest conversions in the United States from a certification and regulatory perspective

https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2025-0013

Canadian Journal of Forest Research, November 2025

Authors
John W. Coulston, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station
Phillip J. Radtke, Virginia Tech
Erik B. Schilling, NCASI
Steven P. Prisley, NCASI (Retired)
David M. Walker, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station through Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education
James A. Westfall, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Northern Research Station

Abstract
Forest conversions are an important consideration of the forest products sector. Both third-party certifications, such as the Sustainable Forestry Initiative, and government regulation, such as the European Union Regulation on Deforestation Free Supply Chains, require knowledge of conversions in fiber supply regions. Here we develop a new approach to estimate some relevant forest conversion metrics for economic regions of the United States. Across economic regions, forest conversion rates were small. For example, gross annual forest loss to agriculture was <0.044%, gross annual natural forest loss to planted forest was <0.86%, net annual loss in natural forest was <0.41%, and net 10-year forest loss was <1.86%. Our results suggest three major conclusions. First, forest conversions to agriculture are not currently an issue in roundwood producing regions of the United States. Second, natural forest conversions to planted forest are offset by landowners choosing to use natural regeneration methods. Third, there are several economic regions where 10-year net forest loss approaches but does not exceed 1% net loss at p = 0.95. Finer-scale analyses, in these economic regions, will likely be necessary for the forest products sector to ensure compliance with forest certification standards.

Keywords: sustainability, markets, markov process, land use change, forest conditions