Some Models are Useful…for Estimating Standing Aboveground Carbon in US Forests

https://doi.org/10.1007/s44392-025-00056-7

Journal of Forestry, November 2025

Authors
Mike Premer, University of Maine
Erin Simons-Legaard, University of Maine
Adam Daigneault, University of Maine
Daniel Hayes, University of Maine
Kevin A. Solarik, NCASI
Aaron Weiskittel, University of Maine

Abstract
The capacity of forests to sequester and store carbon (C) has received increased recognition in the US. Long-term estimates of forest C given changes in climate and management are commonly simulated using alternative growth, disturbance, and biosphere models with varying assumptions. Model outputs are reported for voluntary/regulatory compliance, valuation, and land-use planning. While many diverse models are available, review and guidance are needed on model selection, application, and associated strengths and weaknesses for analysts and managers. Our objectives were to evaluate common growth & yield systems, landscape frameworks, and process-based biosphere models, and demonstrate a case study in Maine, USA, with publicly available data and several common modeling approaches. Results highlight that all systems maintain unique strengths and limitations, reflecting original development and applications, and no single model should be used to provide estimates of C from the tree-level to global scales. Case study results highlight a two-fold difference in projected C over time using commonly applied modelling approaches. More work is needed to quantify uncertainties, key drivers, and differences in long-term projections, and standardization of modeling approaches will strengthen the reliability of forest C programs.

Keywords: Forest Carbon, Carbon Models, Growth and Yield, Landscape Disturbance, Climate Change, Forest Management, Carbon Accounting